The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
A combination of one of the lowest labour costs and a large surplus workforce, which will continue to grow until 2031, is one of the key competitive edges that India is leveraging to challenge its rivals in Southeast Asia in the race for a China-Plus-One strategy. Apart from India, the countries in the race to woo global companies that manufacture in China, as well as the supply chains to their country include Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the labour front, India is a clear winner.
According to the global financial services firm, the recent steps taken by the government provide further confidence that not only is the reforms agenda on track but the pace is accelerating too.
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
The Reserve Bank may cut key interest rates as early as this week.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Private equity major Carlyle group on Friday sold shares worth over Rs 4,800 crore in SBI Cards and Payment Services and its nominee stepped down from the company's board. CA Rover Holdings (CARH), a subsidiary of Carlyle group, offloaded more than 4.7 crore shares of SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd (SBI Card) worth about Rs 4,811 crore through open market transactions on BSE and NSE. With the latest sale of shares, the group's shareholding in the company fell below 10 per cent, following which its nominee director on SBI Card's board -- Sunil Kaul -- stepped down.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, the three bulge-bracket banking groups of the US, are likely to get active in Indian real estate after a long gap, according to executives with property funds and consultancies.
Interview with Asia-Pacific economist, Morgan Stanley
Nineteen per cent of global fund managers remain bullish on India, suggests the latest BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey (FMS). A total of 249 panelists with $656 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) participated in the survey between February 2 and 8, BofA said. Two hundred and nine participants with $568 billion AUM responded to the global FMS questions, while 145 participants with $331 billion in AUM responded to the regional fund manager survey (FMS) questions, BofA said.
Malcolm Wood, Asia Pacific Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley is not too positive on the financial sector in India.
Goldman Sachs has amassed $2bn to use for property investments in Asia, a move likely to intensify competition for assets in fast-growing markets such as China and India.
Also, the combination of a new entrant and new technology is not necessarily good.
Analysts are bullish on consumption and investment themes.
After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
Foreign institutional investment flows remain key driver for the Indian markets.\n
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, as well as Britain's Asia-focused Standard Chartered said they would try to support London's financial sector
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
''The outcome of the state polls may lead to some strategy-related permutations and combinations and the markets may extrapolate it to the likely outcome in the general elections.'
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
Most players are looking to invest anywhere between $500 million and $1 billion in new ventures in the next couple of years, said experts on this segment.
Investment by US PE firm KKR will add fire to Ambani's battle for dominance in the retail market that is also being eyed by Jeff Bezos' Amazon and Walmart's Flipkart.
Domestic equity markets are in elite company. In May, Indian markets joined select developed markets (DMs) such as the US, UK and Germany to record new all-time highs. Among emerging markets (EMs), Brazil is the other market to have logged new highs this month. Asian peers such as South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are currently between 2 per cent and 10 per cent below their previous highs made earlier this year. The domestic markets were among the worst-performing major global markets in April amid a lethal second-wave of covid-19 infections.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
The trip was more about understanding the Indian market, but was also about signaling to the world that Apple has arrived in India
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and mutual funds (MFs) have put in more money as anchor investors in initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2021 than any other year. FPIs' share of investments for the year stood at Rs 24,477 crore, nearly six times that put in last year and more than nine times the amount invested in 2019, the data from Prime Database showed. MFs have invested Rs 12,264 crore, four times than that invested last year and more than 10 times the investment in 2019. The total investment by FPIs and MFs put together this year is five times the amount invested last year. The amount contributed by MFs, however, is nearly half of that invested by FPIs.
With Housing Development Finance Corporation's (HDFC's) merger with HDFC Bank becoming effective on July 1, the merged entity is set to become the top weight in the benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indices, dislodging the country's most valuable company, Reliance Industries (RIL), from its perch. HDFC will stop trading after July 13. At present, RIL has a weighting of close to 12 per cent in the Sensex and 10.3 per cent in the broad-based Nifty. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and HDFC have weights of 9.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent in the Sensex and 8.8 per cent and 6 per cent in the Nifty, respectively.
India's macroeconomic environment is improving, but it is still not past the point where it can ignore the developments in the global markets
India accounted for a meagre 5.1 per cent of merger and acquisition (M&A) deals among emerging countries in the first nine months this year, the lowest in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
A fall in crude oil price and Aramco's $75 billion annual dividend commitment may have delayed Saudi company picking a stake in Reliance Industries Ltd's oil-to-chemical unit (O2C), research firm Jefferies said. Richest Indian Mukesh Ambani had in August 2019 announced talks for the sale of a 20 per cent stake in the O2C business, which comprises its twin oil refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat and petrochemical assets, to the world's largest oil exporter. The deal was to conclude by March 2020 but has been delayed for reasons not disclosed by either company.
Materials and utilities were the worst-performing sectors in March.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
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